EA - Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely by Ted Sanders

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Transformative AGI by 2043 is 10% seems to require probabilities that feel unreasonably high, and even 3% seems unlikely.Thoughtfully applying the cascading conditional probability approach to this question yields lower probability values than is often supposed. This framework helps enumerate the many future scenarios where humanity makes partial but incomplete progress toward transformative AGI.Executive summaryFor AGI to do most human work for